Showing posts with label forex. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forex. Show all posts

Tuesday

Market Clubs Adam Hewison gets Spammed by the Whitehouse

And he is mad!!

From Adam Hewison at Market Club:

Cash For Clunkers … and now “Cash For Traders”

August 17, 2009 · By Adam · Filed Under Financial News

Before I get into the “Cash For Traders” topic, I have something to share with you that is very disturbing. I am getting spammed… that’s right, spammed by the White House. I have never asked for e-mails from the White House, nor have I signed up for e-mails from the White House. But for some reason David Axelrod, a close adviser to President Obama, feels he can just e-mail me at will trying to sell Obama’s universal health package.

Mr. Axelrod please stop this practice now! (see White House Spam here)

I never ever envisioned the White House becoming a spammer, nor did I envision the White House resorting to spam tactics. The White House is using the same spam tactics as every other con artist. You know the ones I am talking about… get-rich-quick schemes and work at home deals you see all over the internet.

David Axelrod come clean with all this spam business, show some respect for the White House and your position.

That’s my first issue cause I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.

Here’s the next one …

So just how much money has the government spent to support/stimulate/resurrect/resuscitate the economy? I always believed that the problem that caused the recession was over spending and the use of credit. So here we have the government trying to bail out the country by spending even more of our money.

Does that make sense to anybody?

I’m going to get to the “Cash For Clunkers” and “Cash For Traders” point in just a moment, so bear with me.

It just amazes me how we keep throwing money at problems and not letting the problems sort themselves out in their natural order. Here’s a case in point, GM, this company was mismanaged for years. It was run with arrogance and with no attention to what was going on in the world market. It had no idea that the world was changing and they couldn’t say NO to the unions. It was just easier to say YES and let someone else worry about that problem later on.

So what does the government do for GM? It gives them billions of dollars, which in my opinion will never be paid back. Rather than give the money to new, innovative car companies like Tesla and Aptera, they give it to a dead in the water, not going anywhere, fast company like GM.

Tesla and Aptera, two exciting electric car companies are creating the transportation of tomorrow and are streaking ahead of GM in both design and technology. Okay, that’s my take of the automotive industry.

After giving billions away to the automobile manufacturers the government decides to give the public money to trade in our own cars for new cars and take on even more debt.

Does that make sense to you? Why would anyone, including the government spend $4,500 to buy a truck or a car that’s worth maybe $500. Come on, even an elementary school kid could figure out the math on this one.

These are cars that would have eventually been traded in anyway, but no, the government had to spend several billion dollars to make everybody feel good. It’s a nutty, nutty program. When the money runs out and it will, do we just print more money or do we let the market decide?

Once the government stops supplying the fuel for demand the fire will go out.

Now you know how I feel about this government’s spending in the automobile sector. What do you think?

Next, let’s take a look at the financial industry. How can we forget AIG, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, and a host of other financial institutions that have taken money or have been absorbed by the government/private sector because they were deemed to big to fail.

The reality is, if they were stupid enough to get into so much trouble why are we keeping them afloat and rewarding clown like behavior. When historians look back at history, if we still have a country by then, they will say to themselves “what were we thinking in ‘08 and ‘09?”

Where were all the regulators, and where were all the politicians who pushed this crazy program that everybody should have a house. Republicans and Democrats are both guilty of this. It didn’t matter if you had no income, didn’t have a job, you were owed a $500,000 house… that was the American way, or should I say the political way of getting re-elected.

The other thing that is very frustrating is that many of the politicians who approved all these wonderful feel good programs are the ones that are trying to make things right by spending even more money. It just doesn’t make any sense to me that we have spent our children’s futures because of the inability of politicians to say, “no you can’t have that.”

Okay, we talked about “Cash For Clunkers,” now let’s talk about “Cash For Traders.”

Did you get your trading check from the government yet? I didn’t get mine and I’m pretty sure you didn’t yours either.

But do you know who did? Goldman Sachs. Yes sir, that’s right, they received a ton of money from the government. Now here’s another little factoid, more than any other financial house Goldman Sachs has an indisputable relationship with the government which is very deep, very high up, and wide spread.

I am not big on conspiracy theories, but this one just defies logic and therefore bears thinking about. On Wall Street, there’s no free lunch. So, here’s what I think happened behind closed doors when no one was there to record it. I believe the government made a deal with Goldman Sachs and asked them in not so many words to juice up the market as a payback for all the money they had received from the government.

Why else would the stock market that has the worst fundamentals since the great depression rally some 40 plus percent in just a few months. I have asked around and spoken to many of my trading peers who are also at a loss for words to describe and explain this rally.

Now that brings us to the gold market point I want to make, which is my last, “I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore”.”

Why has gold been held below the thousand dollar an ounce mark for over a year? Given that the economy is not going to recover anytime soon, given the fact that the US dollar is headed down and will probably erode away. Gold should be higher on those facts alone.

The gold market is not that big of a market and it is fairly easy for a very big player like Goldman Sachs to keep a lid on the market.

Imagine the gold market rallying over a thousand dollars an ounce and the press reporting on it and the general public flocking in to buy gold at any price to protect themselves against a total collapse of the banking system. This is why the gold market has had a roof on it to keep it below the $1000 an ounce level and stop a run on the banks.

We had better cross our fingers that President Obama doesn’t do what President Franklin D. Roosevelt did when he issued Executive Order 6102. This Executive Order signed on April 5, 1933 by U.S. President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, “forbidding the hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion, and Gold Certificates” by U.S. citizens. That was the law of the land in the US for over 40 years, hard to believe, but it’s a fact.

Can it happen again?

I would say based on the way our government is acting, anything is possible.

As I said earlier, I do not believe in conspiracy theories but this one has got me wondering.

What do you think? I invite you to leave your comments on our blog.

Greetings from Maine and all the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

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Some Forex Philosophy

Works With Stocks Too!!

I remember one of the smartest human beings I’ve ever mentored, in my 15 years in the markets, explaining a trade he wanted to place. Let’s call him “Neal.” Neal told me that the Fed needed to raise rates immediately and he was piling up long USD. Well, the rate rise never came, but he made $1oK on his position anyway. The market was pricing in a larger rate rise in the future. He then prances around my trading room like a show horse, talking about how he was right for taking such a large long position. I walked over to him and proceeded to tell him that we were taking the money out of his account. “What?! Why?!” exclaimed Neal. “Because you were wrong. You said the Fed was going to raise rates immediately and they didn’t,” I told him, “so you have to give the money back.”

Obviously, we didn’t take the money from Neal but the point, I believe, is a strong one. In trading, focusing on being “right” will get you a cup of coffee and a few hours in front of the help wanted section of Craigslist. Right is ego and that has no business in a trader’s working day. If you want to be “Big shot trader,” do it at the bar at The Four Seasons Hotel on the weekend.

In successful trading, there is no “right,” only good trades and bad trades. As you grow as a trader, you want to eliminate as many bad trades as human nature will allow. It is possible to lose money on good trades and make money on bad trades but as time goes on, the more you eliminate the bad trades and put on the good ones, the more money you will make. What makes a “good trade”? It’s a combination of discipline, risk/reward, money management and internal honesty. Looking inward to see if you are in a trade because you want to prove (to others or to yourself) just how smart you are or because you did your analysis, calculated risk/reward and decided that this was the best trade the market offered you. Have you ever walked up to your screen with a position in mind only to find the charts or the fundamental news told you something different? Which trade did you put on? Were you able to face that your opinion was wrong and put on the good trade that the market was offering you?

Most successful traders that I know in the modern age have varying levels of personal ego, but very little trading ego. They are fine with a loss and know that the market will not save them from themselves. The days of the big swinging pit trader, pushing the market around, are over. There may be funds and institutions that can temporarily affect market direction, but the Forex market is too large and will always go exactly where it is supposed to be. Do your research and be disciplined in your trading plan and leave Neal, the prancing show pony exactly where he belongs…in the barn.

Bob Iaccino
TraderOutlook.com

Proper Position Sizing

Proper position sizing is something many traders never even think of, let alone learn to master.

To determine our positions size we must first set a stop level. This should be a logical place which will be out of range of normal market movements, and if hit will be at a level where we know we are wrong about the direction of the market. Remember, a trader should not risk more than 1-2% of capital on a trade. Less is better. Larger accounts are likely to risk much less than 1% of capital on many trades. They may do this by selecting a fixed dollar stop which is less than 1% of their account.

If our account is $5000, we can have a maximum loss of $100 if we risk 2% of our capital on the trade. Let’s say we choose a stop which is 50 pips below our entry buy price. From this information we can determine our proper position size; we can take a maximum of 2 mini lots. If our stop is hit, we will lose 50 pips X 2 mini lots, or $100 which was our maximum loss.

Taking 2 mini lots on this trade allows us to have an ideal stop (this will be different for each trade) and keep our risk in check. As our stop (or risk level) increases on the trade, our position size will decrease, and as our risk (on the trade) decreases our position size can increase. As our account grows our position sizes will also generally increase as we are able to risk more capital on each trade.

Whether we risk a percentage of our account on each trade, or choose a fixed dollar amount we are willing to risk on a trade (for larger accounts) the method above should be employed to determine the proper position size based on the stop level which is ideal for the trade. This means each trade may be for different quantities, depending on the dynamics of the trade set up.

To learn more about my writings and follow my blog posts you can view everything at darkpooltraders.com an active community of professional traders.

Best,

Ron Chernesky

Friday

Forex Analyzed

Today looks like it may be a good day to swing back to trading stocks. The forex market is always there 24 hours a day 5 days a week when the stock market isn't behaving.

During times of uncertainty when stocks can't find a way, and for those that don't like or are not good at daytrading, the forex provides relief and lots of profit potential.

Watch this video from Adam Hewison as he examines the forex markets and shows a quick and effective way to analyze the dollar index too. Enjoy and learn, then go make some money!!




And then again, maybe not.

Thursday

Will The “Stress Test” Details Cause Panic?

Jeff Braun of the Market Guardian has written an excellent post on the Governments upcoming "stress tests" for banks. It relays my sentiments exactly. the test can not fail for the Governments expensive economic recovery program to work.

The upcoming test is something that every trader needs to pay attention to. How it may be manipulated and what it really means. Click on the traders blog link at the top of this page to get to the article.